According to the experts, the Conservatives might not have won this election
- Text by Michael Segalov
- Photography by Theo McInnes
Exit polls are not accurate. They get things wrong a lot of the time. But they’re the best indicator we have, by far, of what the UK Parliament come the end of this long night might look like.
This election was called by Theresa May entirely needlessly, a vanity project to increase her majority for no other reason at all. Now, it seems say the experts, that this might have been the biggest own goal in political history. It seems that it’s possible that Theresa May will no longer have a majority in Parliament. The Conservatives will not have the numbers to continue their rule. That’s if this data is correct.
Right now the exit poll projection suggests these results as the final seat tally:
Conservative 314
Labour 266
SNP 34
Lib Dem 14
Plaid 3
Green 1
UKIP 0
Other 18
If that’s correct, the Tories have lost their majority. It’s true to say on paper the Tories will have still won the election – they’re the largest party by a chunk. But what’s important to note is that before the election the Conservatives had 330 seats, giving them a tight, but workable majority in the House of Commons. If this is correct, then they won’t, and that’s huge.
Moreover this would be nothing short of a miracle for Labour. Six weeks ago going into this election, most pundits talked of a Tory majority of between 70 and 100 seats – close to Thatcher’s greatest parliamentary advantage.
As I say though, this is still all speculative. It’s going to be a long night.
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